How Nana Addo Could Win

This is the first of a two-part series looking at the path to victory for John Mahama and Nana Addo. Click here for the second story: How Mahama could win.

Nana Addo has a lot going against him in this election. The New Patriotic Party is struggling to unify behind him. We heard the likes of Paul Afoko and co. The facts are too damning to be credibly spun.

And yet, despite all of that, the NPP flagbearer is rebounding from the series of events that threatened to undermine his candidacy. Why? Because Mahama is not only deeply disliked but deeply distrusted by large swaths of the electorate. And in a binary choice election — if you don't like Option A, you get Option B.

Take the new CDD poll for instance. Asked whether Ghana's economy was in great shape, 70 percent said it's in bad shape.SEVENTY PERCENT.

That's absolutely remarkable. Stunning, really.

But here's the thing: Nana's appeal is rooted in a willingness to blow up the old order. Everything he stands for is not just 'anti-establishment' but also 'anti-the-way-we-have-long-been-thinking-about-and-conducting-politics'.

Mahama won in 2012 and was the exact opposite. He is seen as the status quo. He is steadiness, continuity, experience.

If Ghanaians no longer believe your economic policies, then why vote for you? Why not vote for something totally and completely different, something like Nana Addo? You see.

The legacy of the Mahama administration means that his coalition is crumbling. The record of stagnant wages, shrinking government spending is likely to affect Mahama's performances in the election, which Nana Addo is targeting.

While Nana Addo may be disliked for being a loose cannon, Mahama's weakness is precisely that he's seen as an untrustworthy and coddled establishment hack.

And this isn't the only way in which Akufo Addo is targeting the NDC base. As a populist, he can defend "free markets" and welfare and protectionism at the same time.

So all this is to say: Yes, Nana Akufo Addo could win. He wouldn’t have an easy or typical path to victory, yet it could happen.