How Mahama Could Win

This is the second of a two-part series looking at the path to victory for John Mahama and Nana Addo. Click here for the first story: How Nana Addo could win.

John Mahama has advantages heading into the final stretch of the campaign that any presidential candidate would envy: a fleet of popular surrogates[John Dumelo for instance], a mountain of cash and an opponent[Bawumia] who is often sidetracked by self-inflicted wounds.

Yet, Mahama enters this home stretch in a dead heat against Nana Addo, according to a CDD poll released last Month.

NPP SUPPORTERS:
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I am sorry because this is an awful, depressing news for you: John Mahama is going to win in December. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you'll be saying them again for the next four years: “PRESIDENT MAHAMA.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly – “No, Admin, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the Ghanaian will never re-elect a "dumsor" president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment[That Nana is a dictator]. And then you listen to Nana Addo and you behold our very first non-John president, someone who is whip-smart and cares about the country, who won't continue Mahama's legacy because that is what the Ghanaian clearly wants! Yes! Arise For Change!

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts - "70% of Ghanaians think the economy is in bad shape" or logic - "people aren’t going to vote for John Dumsor Mahama or against their own best interests!” – is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma.

Well, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Nana Addo is going to beat John Mahama with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past election where he tried that and every kitchen sink he could throw at Mahama and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen – and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Mahama has done well. Things are better. My point is, a huge shift has taken place – just ask E. T. Mensah. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Nana Addo would win in a landslide.

But that is not how it works in Ghana. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for December – who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Ama, Kojo and Kwesi (and Adwoa and Esi and Kwame, Baah and Afua, Ama, Kojo and Adwoa, Esi, Joe) has cast his or her ballot? That’s right. That’s the high level of danger you’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Nana Addo TV ads, or outfacting the NDC or Ndoum supporters siphoning votes away from Mahama is going to stop his mojo.

Here's how Mahama could win:

FOCUS
Mahama will maintain an incessant focus on his unpredictable rival and persuade voters that he lacks the temperament, character and knowledge required of a potential commander-in-chief.

The Bawumia Problem
Let’s face it: Your biggest problem here isn’t Mahama– it’s Bawumia. Some voters know of his brazen whoops. Anyidodoho gave him a bad rap today. - read STARR FM's story.

So the election will likely come down to this - there are other factors too. And we'll keep you posted!