Why Nana Addo Might Win

"The economy isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” - Coach Vince Lombardi.

At least that’s according to Yale economics professor Ray C. Fair. He’s built a model to predict presidential election that’s based largely on just three economic issues: Is the economy growing? Is inflation low? And how good has the economy been over the past four years?

If the answers are yes, yes and not bad, then for the election of 2016, Fair’s model would predict a clear victory for President John Mahama. If the answers are no, no, and not good, then his model would predict a clear victory for former minister Nana Addo.

What’s the model saying now, just days before the election?

For one thing, the economic variables are all set in stone so, unlike what the candidates are saying, they’re not changing before the election. Here they are.

The economy is on the rise, an increase in per capita. Inflation is reducing(but too high). And, the NDC has had one quarter when economic growth was relatively strong.

These numbers are very “so-so,” and using them, the model would predict that the president will get about 49 percent of the vote. In a two-party race, 49 percent for Mahama, of course, means 51 percent for Akufo-Addo. In other words, a Nana Addo victory.

There’s one caveat to consider. The predicted 49 percent share of vote for the president is well within the “margin of error” inherent in these models. Economists, statisticians, and people who build this type of econometric model for a living, would say that even though the model predicts a Nana Addo victory, the model’s prediction is “within the standard error” of the estimate. Translation? The actual vote share is as likely to be 49 percent for Nana Addo as it is for Mahama.

That said, Mahama would have clear victory in sight if the economy were in better shape than it now is.

If the economy were in better shape, Fair’s model would predict Mahama to receive 53.5 percent of the vote. In other words, a Mahama landslide.

Although the main economic variables work against Mahama, some non-economic variables work in his favor. One of these is the incumbency effect. As Fair has explained, voters tend to vote against a party that has been in power for two terms. Since the NDC have been in power for two terms, this factor goes in Akufo-Addo's favor. The same model also predicts that the incumbent is generally favored to be reelected, giving a point for Mahama.

One way to gauge the usefulness of an economic model is to see how well it’s done in the past. On this score, Fair’s model does very well.

If the economy’s all that matters, then Nana’s set to win. But, that’s not all that matters. For former Minister Nana Addo to become President Nana Addo, he must reach 50% + 1 votes.